Coronavirus Update 09/04/2020 – Light at the End of the Tunnel?

It is notable the extent to which the UK and US patterns of Covid-19 growth are now following each other, with similar rates of case growth and of the rise in deaths from the Coronavirus epidemic. (Chart 1)

Chart 1 – Data Source https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Since about the 26th of March there have been distinct reductions in the growth of detected cases in both countries, more decisively so in the US, so that its previously divergent growth rate has now come to be more or less equal to that of the UK. In view of the much-publicised difficulties in scaling-up infection testing in both countries, this might represent a falling behind the actual rates of infection. With something of a 7-10 day lag however, the rate of increase in confirmed Covid-19 deaths is now beginning to slow steadily in both countries – although it is still enough to mean that record daily mortalities are regularly recorded. (Chart 2)

Chart 2 – Data Source https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

It is critical that this slowing continues until daily fatalities begin to fall significantly. As such there is no realistic prospect in the near future of any reduction in ‘lockdowns’ that currently exist, and for areas of the US where these have not yet been instituted, they are likely to follow as cases and fatalities there continue to rise.

This necessity is clearly demonstrated by the projections below that show current growth rates taking US Covid-19 deaths to 100,000 by 22nd April and the UK hitting the same tragic mark about 1 week later (Chart 3).

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