Tag Archives: health

Coronavirus Update 26/03/2020

Whilst both the UK and the US can be said to have been slow in initiating forceful measures to deal with the Coronavirus epidemics in their countries, the UK government under Prime Minister Boris Johnson has now, albeit not always with the necessary clarity, announced shutdowns of most social-mixing in Britain. Only ‘essential workers’ – a term yet to be satisfactorily defined – should be leaving their homes except for shopping for necessary goods, healthcare access or for suitably distancing exercise. There are problems in obtaining adequate protective equipment for front-line health-workers, but central government do seem to be making some effort to address this.

Unfortunately, in the US, the leadership vacuum in the shape of Donald Trump is more interested in spreading misinformation and bigging-up his own desultory (frankly negative) role in efforts to combat the virus and its consequences. Any effective efforts to counsel isolation of those with symptoms and general social-distancing, and to provide additional equipment and space in anticipation of the inevitable rise in the number of cases needing hospitalisation, have been taken by State governors, and mainly Democratic ones. Worse still, Trump is now touting the idea that ‘the cure is worse than the disease’ and that such restrictions as there are should be relaxed after another two weeks to allow business (and from his point of view the stock market) to recover. Apart from the fact that cases and deaths will almost certainly still be rising at that time, the degree of complacency this signals is likely to be extremely damaging to ongoing suppression efforts in the United States.

Chart 1 – Data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

These different approaches by the executives in the two countries are paralleled by the tracks of the case and death growth rates, although it is impossible to say at this stage whether there is any causal relation. Be that as it may, there is some evidence that the UK growth curves are beginning to slope a little more shallowly, while the slopes of the US curves are static at best (Chart 1). The track of the 5-day average growth rates confirms this, particularly when it comes to the growth rate in deaths which with variable testing regimes is probably a better guide to progress, with the UK growth rate at 21.5% now falling below that of the US at 27% (Chart 2).

Chart 2 – Data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Coronavirus Update 20/03/2020

Current Trends in the UK and the US

More or less as I was posting my previous piece, the UK government was publicly rolling back on the idea that the aim of ‘herd immunity’ was the optimal strategy in the face of the Coronavirus epidemic. At the same time it published the scenario modelling of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, which contained the following passage.

In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict [under a mitigation strategy] there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US. In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days, with the refinement of estimates of likely ICU demand due to COVID-19 based on experience in Italy and the UK (previous planning estimates assumed half the demand now estimated) and with the NHS providing increasing certainty around the limits of hospital surge capacity.

Yet, as I described in my previous post, a figure in the region of 250,000 deaths could have been reached by somewhat simpler calculation.

There is little sign of any alteration to the trajectory I outlined previously. The UK growth in cases over the last 7 days averages at around 0.25, whereas that in the US is close to 0.3. This means that new confirmed cases each day in the UK are around a quarter of the total cases from the day before, but in the US this is closer to one third. These differences may represent policy changes in each country, with the UK restricting testing to hospitalised cases, and the US attempting to ramp up testing from its previous relatively low level. We can project these rates of growth into the future however to suggest that the UK will have reached 10,000 cases in around five days, and the US 100,000 cases in about 1 week (Chart 1). Over the last few days the UK death rate has risen alarmingly, currently running at around 0.35 (35% additional deaths each day), considerably higher than the US mortality growth rate which as would be expected appears to be converging on the case growth rate. If this trend were to continue, the UK would have experienced 1,000 Covid-19 deaths in 5 days time, 1 day earlier than the US. It’s not clear why the UK death rate should be increasing so rapidly; maybe because of the lag in time between case detections and deaths, maybe because of the populations initially infected. The most concerning reason would be that even at this early stage the NHS is being stretched beyond capacity by the epidemic.

Chart 1 – Data from https://www.worldometers.info/
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